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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290823
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR WRN TX S PLAINS...FAR SW TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AND ERN AZ...FAR SERN UT...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND SERN CO...NM...SWRN KS...WRN OK...CNTRL AND W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH EWD
PROGRESSION...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SFC CYCLONE OVER SERN CO. RESULTANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
YIELD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS...WITH AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL THREAT CENTERED OVER NM AND PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING/DRYING TREND...BUT WEAK WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN TX S
PLAINS...FAR SW TX...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN NM AND
INTO PORTIONS OF W TX. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
PAC NW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL DIG SEWD TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...A BELT OF STRONG 0-3 KM W-SWLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SRN PLAINS. BY LATE MORNING...DOWNWARD
MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TOWARDS THE SFC WILL OCCUR AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...AND ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT OWING TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO...WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH /GUSTS AOA 40 MPH/.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE /PWAT VALUES OF 0.2 INCH PER
AMA AND ABQ 00Z SOUNDINGS/...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS TEMPERATURES HEAT INTO THE 80S-90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS/VALLEYS OF NM AND W TX. ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT AND
VERY DRY FUELS WILL ONLY ACCENTUATE THE RISK FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY IN RH VALUES MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
BEYOND SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOMEWHAT
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
...SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...NRN AND ERN AZ...FAR
SERN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SERN CO...NM...SWRN KS...WRN
OK...CNTRL AND W TX...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...INCLUDING THE ERN HALF OF
AZ...FAR SERN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND WRN NM...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AZ AND
PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU. HOWEVER...COOLER CONDITIONS /MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S-70S F/ OWING TO HIGHER ELEVATION AND LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SHOULD KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS.
OVER ERN NM...W TX...SERN CO...SWRN KS...THIS AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST LAYER WINDS...THOUGH HIGH END CONDITIONS
MAY STILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS.
VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/...ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ARE ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 MPH DEVELOP.
ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX...EXPANSIVE AREA OF SLY WINDS /SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SRN HIGH PLAINS
SFC CYCLONE...WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...MIN RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS...AND ONGOING DROUGHT LEADING TO A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND S TX...
SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF TX IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED LEE SFC CYCLONE. HOWEVER...OWING
TO TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
LOWER-MID 20S...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN A CRITICAL RISK
AREA ATTM. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL STILL EXIST.
...WRN AZ...SRN NV...
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON /WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH/...AS MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
LOWER-MID TEENS. THIS AREA WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM
REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
..ROGERS.. 04/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...