Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210812
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN NM...NWRN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF NM...FAR WRN TX...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...ERN CO...WRN KS...PARTS OF ERN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BROAD SWATH OF INTENSE
LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER FAR NERN CO WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN
KS...THE OK PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN TX. FARTHER WEST...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN AZ INTO WRN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHWEST...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS PROBABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS /AOA 70 MPH AT 500 MB AND
AOA 40 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN A
WARM/DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS WILL LIKELY
LIE FROM NERN AZ INTO CNTRL NM...ARCING NEWD IN THE LEE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH. ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING INCREASING PW
VALUES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE EXTREMELY DRY
AIR MASS PREVALENT ON SUN WILL STILL EASILY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES /GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND
90S/ WITH RH VALUES HERE LIKELY FALLING TO 3 TO 8 PERCENT. FARTHER
WEST ACROSS W-CNTRL NM/NERN AZ...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...RH VALUES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA FROM CNTRL NM INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS
REPRESENTS THE ZONE WITH THE GREATEST DURATION/MAGNITUDE OF VERY
STRONG WINDS WITH VERY LOW RH AND MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CRITICAL WIND-DRIVEN FIRE THREAT AND
WEST OF THE PLAINS DRYLINE...AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING INVOF THE GUADALUPE/SIERRA DIABLO MTNS
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES.
..GRAMS.. 03/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...