Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080948
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WRN TX / FAR SERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NM / PORTIONS OF
WRN TX INTO N-CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE MID-LEVEL WINDS /500-MB AND 700-MB SPEEDS AROUND 90 MPH AND
50 MPH...RESPECTIVELY/ WITHIN THE BASE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL
EMERGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NEWD FROM W-CNTRL TX ACROSS OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO
MO...WITH A DRYLINE MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW...AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL
SUPPORT CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TODAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF TX TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
...PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SRN SECTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WRN TX / FAR SERN NM...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM W-SWLY TO W-NWLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH /STRONGER OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE MIXED LAYER
EXTENDS AOA 7000 FT AGL...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO 9 TO 13
PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST. THESE VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AIDED BY THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW OFF THE SRN ROCKIES.
THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON THESE
FACTORS...THE SEVERE DROUGHT IN PLACE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL OFFICES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
NWD AND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX TO ALIGN WITH THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK OF STRONGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND TIGHTEST SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND THUS VERY STRONG SFC WINDS.
...PORTIONS OF SRN NM / PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO N-CNTRL TX...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH...ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT
WEST AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT EAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VEER FROM
W-SWLY TO W-NWLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ERN EDGE OF THE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN N-CNTRL TX WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL POSITION
OF THE DRYLINE...WITH THE ONSET OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BEING DELAYED
UNTIL DRYLINE PASSAGE.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
HIGHER RH VALUES. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MOTION OF THE FRONT...THE
NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN NUDGED SWD SLIGHTLY ACROSS
WRN TX AND SWRN OK. THUS...SWRN OK IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY...AS CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THAT REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...PARTS OF SWRN NM TO THE WEST OF THE CRITICAL AREA MAY
BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY SHORT SUCH THAT THE CRITICAL AREA IS NOT BEING EXPANDED
WWD...AS STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES EWD...AND RH VALUES
MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
..COHEN.. 03/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...