Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS21 KWNS 070948
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON MAR 07 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN AND S-CNTRL NM INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS OF TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / PORTIONS OF
CNTRL...SRN...ERN NM / PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WRN
CONUS...AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES S-SEWD
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. A ZONE OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL
WLY FLOW /500-MB SPEEDS AROUND 100 MPH/ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE EVOLVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...AND EXTEND SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS AND SRN
PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW...THIS
WILL YIELD STRONG TO VERY STRONG SFC WINDS. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS SERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN/ERN NM...AND WRN TX...CRITICAL TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION.
...SERN AZ / CNTRL...SRN...ERN NM / PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA COVERS PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL NM INTO
THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF FAR WRN TX. IN THIS REGION...W-SWLY TO WLY
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH /POTENTIALLY AROUND
60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS TEMPERATURES BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE 70S AND
80S...ALLOWING THE MIXED LAYER TO EXTEND AOA 7000 FT AGL AND THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY LOW RH VALUES /UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...AIDED BY THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS...AND THE SEVERE DROUGHT IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED /IN
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES/. WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY YIELD MORE MARGINAL RH
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PAST FEW MONTHS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS WARRANTS THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL DESIGNATION IN THESE AREAS.
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH W-SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH...ALONG WITH RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
FAR NORTH CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL EXTEND...AS A FRONT DROPS SWD
ACROSS NRN NM AND IS FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH
VALUES. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN NUDGED SWD FROM
THE PRECEDING OUTLOOKS IN NM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED GREATER
MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND IN WRN TX...AS MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ERN EDGE OF THE
CRITICAL AREA HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN NUDGED WWD FROM THE PRECEDING
OUTLOOKS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. GIVEN DEEP AND WELL MIXED
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO DEVELOP
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS INTO THE
NIGHT.
...SRN DESERTS OF CA INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NV AND WRN AZ...
WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
THREE MONTHS HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. THESE FACTORS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...INTERIOR/WRN SECTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10
MPH...INHIBITING A WIND-DRIVEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..COHEN.. 03/07/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...