Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 270839
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN NM...WRN
TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...CNTRL TX...WRN OK...SWRN
KS...SERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN FIRES WILL EXIST TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. A POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OBSERVED ON 0730Z WV IMAGERY OVER SRN CA WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
EWD...OVERSPREADING A STRONG MIDLEVEL JET /AOA 120 MPH AT 500 MB/
FROM SRN NM NEWD INTO WRN OK BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AND PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST...AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL SHARPEN
OVER CNTRL OK/TX. THE RAPIDLY EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE
WITH THE DRYLINE BY EVENING...WITH A FIRE THREAT CONTINUING OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/AFTER
DARK. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ENEWD TO THE OZARK
PLATEAU...WITH THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD TO THE MS
VALLEY AND THE WRN GULF.
...FAR ERN NM...WRN TX...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR WRN OK...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WAS OBSERVED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER NM AND
WRN TX...WITH PWAT GENERALLY 0.05 INCH OR LESS...AND MOISTURE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 400 MB. THE
PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR -5 F WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AS THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
ERODES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BY NOON...FALLING FURTHER THEREAFTER WITH WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMMON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE...TO LOWER/MID 80S
FARTHER S OVER SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF THE EXTREME IN SERN NM WILL FALL BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...THOUGH LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH VALUES
IN THE TEENS STILL POSSIBLE BY EVENING DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FARTHER E...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/AFTER DARK ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IN PORTIONS
OF WRN TX/OK.
REGARDING WINDS...FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS AOA 60 MPH AS DEEP MIXING/STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOW 70-80 MPH JET WINDS AT 700 MB TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. INITIALLY SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT DIRECTION THOUGH
THE DAY...BECOMING WSWLY BY MID AFTERNOON...AND WLY BY EARLY
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE EXTREME IN THE OK AND
FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO NWLY BY THIS TIME. WINDS NEAR 20
MPH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...WHILE THE NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT.
...ERN NM...CNTRL TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS...SERN CO...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL...HIGH-END CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO COOL BY MID AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AREA...ALLOWING A SLOW RECOVERY IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR SERN CO/SWRN KS...STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
REMAIN S OF THE AREA...BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TEENS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF FIRE
WEATHER THREAT BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTING SEWD LEADS TO
QUICKLY COOLING TEMPERATURES/RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY MAY THREATEN
ANY ONGOING FIRES. FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL IN WRN
OK/TX AND CNTRL TX...CURRENT DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PROGRESS EWD AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 TO
30 MPH. A RESURGENCE IN DRY AIR WILL OCCUR AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
CONVERGES WITH THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...AND COULD ALLOW A THREAT
OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING/AFTER DARK.
..HURLBUT.. 02/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...