Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
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FNUS21 KWNS 100711
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ/ERN AND SRN NM/WRN TX/OK
PANHANDLE/SERN CO/SWRN KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE NV/AZ/UT
BORDERS AS OF 0700Z WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS.
MEANWHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE.
...ERN NM/WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE JET CORE WILL BE
OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WILL QUICKLY ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...REACHING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SPEEDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND DEEP MIXING
OCCURS. SWLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO WLY
THEREAFTER...AND ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE JET
CORE PROGRESSES EWD...THEY WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE PANHANDLE...WHILE
FARTHER S 90S TO NEAR 104 CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWER SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON.
...SERN AZ/ERN AND SRN NM/WRN TX/OK PANHANDLE/SERN CO/SWRN KS...
SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TO THE W OF THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE
80S. TO THE EAST OF THE EXTREME...SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
ALIGN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THOUGH GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY SOMEWHAT
TEMPER THE THREAT COMPARED TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.
HOWEVER...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
SPREAD. TO THE NORTH OF THE EXTREME...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS.
SIMILAR TO AREAS EAST OF THE EXTREME...GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY ACT
TO TEMPER THE THREAT...THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT IN AREAS WHERE CURED FUELS EXIST.
...MID ATLANTIC INTO DE/NJ...ERN PA/NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...
DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BY AFTERNOON. IN THE MID ATLANTIC...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE THREAT...THOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
N...WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...RECENT RAINFALL...AND
GREEN UP CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
..HURLBUT.. 05/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...