Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 010813 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND SW/FAR W TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM...SERN AZ...AND WRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ACCOMPANIED BY 500 MB WINDS OF 85 KT...AND 140 KT AT 250 MB. THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NM BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A 40-70 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SOUTH FROM ERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE LOW...EXTENDING TOWARDS THE W INTO NM/AZ. A WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS WINDS STRENGTHEN...FAVORING A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND SW/FAR W TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE DROUGHT A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /EXTENDING UP TO 600 MB/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM 1/00Z INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 IN...AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 DEG F. AS THE SURFACE WARMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 10-15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RESPOND TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...EASILY EXCEEDING 25 MPH. IN ADDITION...AS THE 40-70 KT MID LEVEL JET SPREADS EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL TROUGH AND TRAVERSES SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH /POSSIBLY HIGHER/...AS WELL AS AN ENHANCEMENT TO SUSTAINED WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FAVORING FAST SPREADING FIRES WHICH COULD SEVERELY HINDER CONTROL EFFORTS. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM...SERN AZ...AND WRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS...S-SW SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER WRN INTO N CENTRAL TX. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF NW INTO SW TX...BUT THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN TO ITS W AND E. A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL FAVOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVER W TX...WITH MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE A WEAKNESS IN SUSTAINED WINDS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER W OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AND SRN NM INTO SERN AZ...FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH ARE LIKELY...OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS...SUPPORTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY OVER NM BY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. ..GARNER.. 04/01/2009 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 010818 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CENTRAL TX...PORTIONS OF SW TX...AND THE LOW-MID COASTAL PLAIN... ...SYNOPSIS... A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING OF THUR/D2...AND REACH THE LWR MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD...CAUSING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS TX AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND RAPID LOW LVL DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER S CENTRAL TX. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CENTRAL TX...PORTIONS OF SW TX...AND THE LOW-MID COASTAL PLAIN... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT A WELL MIXED AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWEST 1.5 KM BY MID TO LATE MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 25 DEG F /SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS/. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15-20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...FAVORING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO AN END. ..GARNER.. 04/01/2009 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...