Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230859
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN TX PANHANDLE / NWRN
OK / SWRN KS...
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY /
FAR W TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN KS / WRN OK / SERN CO / LARGE
PARTS OF WRN TX AND SERN HALF OF NM / SERN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH/DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL
GRADUALLY PIVOT EWD AS LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND EJECT EWD INTO THE PLAINS. COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP
WILL FEATURE A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT LOCATED
FROM NRN KS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL KS/WRN OK/TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS VERY LIKELY
FROM PARTS OF THE DESERT SW EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS AREA...TWO LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF
EXTREMELY CRITICAL ZONES ARE FORECAST WITH ONE OVER PARTS OF THE
S-CNTRL PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER PARTS OF SWRN TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN TX PANHANDLE / NWRN
OK / SWRN KS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE-SEVERE
DROUGHT
AS WRN U.S. SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...DRY/WARM AIR
EMANATING FROM THE DESERT SW/PLATEAU. NAM/GFS/ETAKF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITHIN A BELT
OF ENHANCED SWLY 850 MB FLOW /40 KTS/--LOCATED WITHIN A PRONOUNCED
MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT PUSHING NEWD TOWARDS OCCLUDING CYCLONE...WHICH IS
OVERTOP A POST-DRYLINE NEWD EXTENDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE VERY DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES--CONDUCIVE
FOR RH TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG TO VERY
STRONG WINDS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE CRITICAL AREA WITH SUSTAINED
SWLY WINDS 25-40 MPH COMMON WITH GUSTS AT TIMES EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - TX PECOS RIVER VALLEY /
FAR W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS / VERY LOW RH /
MODERATE-SEVERE DROUGHT
VERY WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIR EMANATING
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL FOSTER VERY LOW RH VALUES /5-8
PERCENT/ DURING PEAK HEATING. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE A BELT OF
STRONGER 800-700 MB FLOW /40 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING
THE AFTN HRS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN /GUADALUPE AND JEFF DAVIS MTNS/ AND
LOWER PLAINS TO THE E BEING PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE. VERY STEEP
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN KS / WRN OK / SERN CO / LARGE
PARTS OF WRN TX AND SERN HALF OF NM / SERN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS...RH IS FORECAST TO FALL TO
NEAR 5 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
ATTM...EXPECTING CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO ADVANCE AS FAR NEWD AS THE
CNTRL KS I-70 CORRIDOR WITHIN WELL DEVELOPED DRYSLOT/LOW LEVEL WARM
THERMAL AXIS. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SWLY-WLY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
AS PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD
OVER MUCH OF NM AND FAR W TX...WINDS WILL VEER TO WLY. FURTHER
N...ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING S OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS WILL VEER WINDS FROM SWLY TO A NORTH
COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RH RECOVERY.
..SMITH.. 03/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230957
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DURING THE D2 PERIOD FEATURES A DEEP
OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE N-CNTRL PLAINS NEWD TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF THE ERN STATES WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS SUPPORTING ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INVOF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
...PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS /IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN POST-FRONTAL/DRY AIRMASS ACCORDING TO RECENT
MODEL DATA. WITH RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS ONLY FORECAST IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60...MIN RH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S DURING
PEAK HEATING. BELT OF STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
SHUNTED FURTHER NE CLOSER TO DEPARTING SYSTEM WHEREAS LOWER RH WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED FARTHER SW. AS SUCH...COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND MODEST RH MAY OVERLAP AND SUPPORT LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN KS / NWRN OK / AND NERN TX PANHANDLE. WITH
BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL TO NEXT OUTLOOK UPDATE IF/ONCE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REALIZED.
..SMITH.. 03/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...