Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100930
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER PECOS
RIVER VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPLY OCCLUDED SYSTEM
DEPARTING THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA WHILE ON ITS HEELS...A VERY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE SWRN U.S. TO THE SRN
PLAINS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z/10 OBSERVED UPPER AIR NETWORK
SAMPLED A STRONG UPPER WIND MAXIMA /NEAR 100 KTS/ ALONG THE CA
COAST. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE NWRN OKLA WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD OVER PARTS OF TX DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTECEDENT LOW RH FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS...CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF SWRN AND CENTRAL TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE LOWER PECOS
RIVER VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
WITH A 150 KT 250 MB JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER TX DURING THE
DAY...VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS /50 KTS AT
700MB/ WILL DEVELOP. NAMKF/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 600 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. THIS WILL AID IN THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ENCROACHING FROM THE W DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES AND RH RECOVERY COMMENCES. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO NEAR 5 PERCENT AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND AROUND
80 F. THESE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 48 HRS...AND ANTECEDENT SEVERE DROUGHT--WILL BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST...WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HIGH KBDI
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTREME DUE TO ANY OF THE FOLLOWING FACTORS...1) THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SWRN TX AND THE TRANSPECOS/SOUTH PLAINS
REGIONS /SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH/ BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AND RH
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT /TEENS/. FURTHER E BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...RH MAY POTENTIALLY FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER FURTHER
E.../20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED/. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...WINDS WILL BECOME WLY. RH RECOVERY WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FURTHER E AND S COMPARED TO AREAS OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS.
..SMITH.. 02/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 100956
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES IN WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES CONCURRENTLY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD OVER
THE WRN GULF AND PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF S-CENTRAL AND DEEP S TX...ENHANCING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...PARTS OF S-CENTRAL / DEEP S TX...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF SERN TX D2. GUSTY NWLY
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AND BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH
FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE SURFACE TO 850 MB FLOW
WILL REMAIN AOB 20 KTS...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ATTM...EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE NEAR 15
MPH...PRECLUDING A GREATER THREAT.
..SMITH.. 02/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...