Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 210818 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S CENTRAL AND SWRN NM / SE AZ... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN OMEGA BLOCK-TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER PARTS OF THE E COAST. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WRN U.S. TROUGH...PROMOTING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN ANTECEDENT LOW RH. WHERE SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SWRN AND S CENTRAL NM AND SE AZ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S CENTRAL AND SWRN NM / SE AZ... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...DROUGHT OBSERVED 00Z/21 REGIONAL RAOBS DENOTED A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS /40-50 MPH/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER THE DELINEATED AREA. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY SPARSE SURFACE MOISTURE /DEWPTS 5-15 DEG F./ SUGGEST MIN RH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S.... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND/OR COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LESS DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SOME AREAS. MIN RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 5-15 PERCENT. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS DELINEATED WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON /SERN CO TO THE TX TRANSPECOS REGION/. ...CENTRAL VALLEY OF NRN/CENTRAL CA... ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MIN RH 15-20 PERCENT. DESPITE EXPECTED RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE WIND SPEEDS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MARGINAL MIN RH READINGS...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL AREA. ...N CENTRAL FL... ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER FL AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH NEAR CRITICAL MIN RH READINGS /35 PERCENT/ FOR BRIEF PERIODS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE REGION TO EXPERIENCE NON-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ..SMITH.. 05/21/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 210958 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2008 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ / MUCH OF NM / ERN CO / SWRN KS / W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY /DAY 2/. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ / MUCH OF NM / ERN CO / SWRN KS / W TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS /40-60 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIN RH TO DROP TO 5-15 PERCENT AS STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENABLE EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER/DRY FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 MPH OVER THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM APPROACHING 30-35 MPH. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS DEPENDENT ON DRYLINE PLACEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. ATTM...THE DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH EWD INTO WRN KS WITH IT EXTENDING SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. ...PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS... DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE MAINTAINED OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST MODELS REGARDING THE MIN RH VALUES AND THE JUXTAPOSITION/POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MIN RH PERHAPS REACHING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH CO-LOCATED CRITICAL WINDS. IF THIS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN A LATER OUTLOOK. ...WRN ND / NERN MT... STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS /30-40 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 MPH. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AHEAD OF ADVECTING MOISTURE PLUME...FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN S AND SW OF THE REGION...MAY ACT IN CONCERT TO YIELD LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DESPITE MIN RH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY /DAY 2/. SREF MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A NEARLY EQUAL POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. OCCURRING/NOT OCCURRING BUT CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY. AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM...DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE POSSIBILITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. ..SMITH.. 05/21/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...