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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 160806 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PARTS OF SWRN TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...ERN AZ...MUCH OF WRN TX...SW OK...AND SE CO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SYNOPSIS... AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE SW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND S CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NM DURING THE EVENING WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/SWRN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE SE COASTAL REGIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BRINGING WITH IT VERY DRY AIR. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTH CENTRAL NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PARTS OF SWRN TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...ANTECEDENT DROUGHT LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS A FOCUSED CORRIDOR THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD TOWARDS THE TRANSPECOS AND SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION PER AREAWIDE 00Z/16 RAOBS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...RH WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PERCENT. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE EASY TRANSPORT OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW /55 MPH AT 500 MB/ TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NM...ERN AZ...MUCH OF WRN TX...SW OK...AND SE CO... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH DRY SWLY TO WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL EXIST AGAIN OVER MUCH OF NM...SERN AZ AND WRN TX. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NWLY-NLY DIRECTION. ONE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE /AFFECTING MAINLY THE CAPROCK AND TRANSPECOS REGIONS/...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM A SWLY TO MORE OF A SLY OR SSELY COMPONENT. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS...LOW RH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. ATTM...EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 - 35 PERCENT TO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TOWARDS THE GA/FL LINE. IMMEDIATE ERN COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY EXPERIENCE SUB-CRITICAL RH VALUES. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS MAY APPROACH 15 - 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEREBY WARRANTING A CRITICAL DELINEATION. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NC COASTAL PLAIN... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH A STRONG CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL WINDS /60 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT INFLUENCE OVER THE SE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. DESPITE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...MODERATE SUSTAINED N-NNELY WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP /15 - 20 MPH/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER...PRIMARILY DUE TO A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH MINS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS /INLAND/ AND TWENTIES /COASTAL AREAS/ FOR A FEW HOURS SURROUNDING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...HAVE OUTLINED A NARROW CRITICAL AREA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS SEEMS MOST LIKELY. ...NRN FL/SRN AL/SRN GA... A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RATHER LOW RH /15 - 30 PERCENT/. WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY NEAR THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MIN RH PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE GREATER. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 15 MPH...ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NE OF THE REGION...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERSION NEAR 10KFT WILL ACT TO PARTIALLY INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...THUS PREVENTING STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 20 MPH AND RH IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ..SMITH.. 04/16/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 160857 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS...STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. ...SWRN TX... THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE RELATIVE SHORT TERM WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVELY LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE IN POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE UNCLEAR ATTM. HAVE GONE WITH A SEE TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL. ...FL AND PARTS OF SRN GA/AL... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES MAY VERY WELL AGAIN REACH BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS ON THURSDAY /DAY 2/. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER COMPARED TO DAY 1...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL DESIGNATION. ..SMITH.. 04/16/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...