Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 100712 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR SWRN TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SRN NM...SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY...WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SRN NM/SWRN TX. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SERN AZ...SRN NM...FAR SWRN TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD...STRONG POST FRONTAL WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING IN WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE TEENS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW STRONGER JET WINDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SRN NM...SWRN TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CAN BE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLINE HAVE BEEN MADE DUE TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CRITICAL. ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECEIVED IN THE MOUNTAINS...MPE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWS IN GENERAL LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE STILL DRY...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKELY. ...EXTREME SRN NV...SRN CA/AZ BORDER... AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN JET AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE NV/CA/AZ BORDERS. CHANNELING OF THESE WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHER SPEEDS AND STRONGER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE OBS FROM YESTERDAY SHOW SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH...AND GIVEN EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD...WILL LEAVE AREA AS A SEE TEXT...ALTHOUGH VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 100827 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. BEHIND THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH A NWLY TO NLY FLOW AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOLLOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN NV AND THE CA/AZ BORDERS...WITH CHANNELING THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MAIN UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EWD...POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE REDUCED. ...SRN AZ/NM... A NARROW WINDOW OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS AZ/NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 20 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES EWD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE REGION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE A RELAXATION IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SWD. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD AS WELL...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. ...SSWRN TX... MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WIND FORECAST AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND A RELATIVELY LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN TX. DESPITE THIS...A NLY TO NELY DRY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S...WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS AN AREA THAT HAS BEEN CRITICALLY DRY FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FRAME. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS...AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL EXIST. ..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...