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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 210907 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN CA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS OF CENTRAL CA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM...WRN TX... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY AIR/MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST SUPPORTING A WARMING/DRYING TREND. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS WILL SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN CA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 30-50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 75 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT A VERY STRONG SANTA ANA/OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS /-15 MB BETWEEN TPH AND LAX/ AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 10-20 KFT WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG SFC WINDS /SUSTAINED UP TO 50 MPH/ DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...BEFORE DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE PERIOD. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY POOR TO NO RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS INCREASE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /GUSTS OVER 75 MPH/ EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGH PASSES/BELOW CANYONS. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL CA COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS AND SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...SLIGHTLY WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CA MTNS AND ACROSS THE SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SRN CA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING /PRIOR TO 15Z/ AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RE-STRENGTHEN. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/CENTRAL NM AND PORTIONS OF WEST TX... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SFC TO SUPPORT MODERATE WLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE AREA....THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...VERY LOW DEWPTS IN THE -5 TO 10 DEG F RANGE WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. FURTHER EAST OVER WEST TX...LOW DEWPTS IN THE 10S/20S COMBINED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT PRIOR TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRESENT AN ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OCCURS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT BY 03Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN AZ... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...A STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF CA WILL SUPPORT STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WRN AZ. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /LOWER-MID 80S F/ VERY LOW DEWPTS FROM 0-10 F WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...BUT MODERATE NELY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERTS OF SCENTRAL AZ/SERN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN/ERN AZ. COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS/POOR RH RECOVERY WILL SUPPORT A DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... AHEAD OF PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. MARGINAL SFC WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 10/21/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 210911 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN CA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SRN CA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...PROVIDING FOR NEAR RECORD WARMTH OVER MUCH OF CA. A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL/EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA AND PORTIONS OF AZ. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN TX ALONG WITH THESE WINDS. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN CA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 35-50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 75 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD /12-18Z/ ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS/MTNS OF SRN CA. THE STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED UP TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 75 MPH/ WILL OCCUR THROUGH PASSES AND BELOW CANYONS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CA WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 4-8 PERCENT RH READINGS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A 10 MPH REDUCTION IN WIND GUSTS. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA - COASTAL VALLEYS... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREA...WEAKER WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL AVERAGE FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. SIMILAR TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN AZ... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED E-NE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT A STRONG PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE PLATEAU/MOGOLLON RIM REGION AND THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE MODERATE E-NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER WEST...MODEST NLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT. VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. ...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN TX... IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL OFFSET BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM 65-75 DEG F TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THE LACK OF A LONG TERM DROUGHT AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION LATE ON DAY ONE OVER SRN/CENTRAL TX ALONG WITH MARGINAL RH READINGS OVER WEST TX WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 10/21/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...