Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120837
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX
AND SWRN/SCENTRAL OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ERN NM...REMAINDER OF WRN
TX...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES
WEST OF A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS ERN TX INTO AR WILL ALLOW FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS. WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH
READINGS...AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN TX AND SRN OK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN TX
AND SWRN/SCENTRAL OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS EXISTS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN WEST TX TO THE LOWER 20S IN
SCENTRAL OK. AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS WILL MIX DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE BY MID-LATE MORNING AIDING IN
MODERATE SURFACE WINDS AND A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
NOON. THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH
OF A COLD FRONT... SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S...CONSEQUENT
MIN RH READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH PLAINS OF
WRN TX TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN SCENTRAL OK. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SWD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BECOME LIGHT WEST NEAR THE FRONT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
A NWLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING. LIMITED COOLING INITIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS REACH 20-25 MPH AND RH READINGS
REMAIN FROM 10-15 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NWLY
WINDS...BEFORE COOL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENTLY HIGHER RH READINGS
ARE PRESENT BY MID EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - MUCH OF ERN NM...REMAINDER OF WRN
TX...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY-NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-25 PERCENT.
AROUND THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...THIS REGION WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
LESS WIND STRENGTH AND/OR HIGHER RH READINGS. OVER ERN NM AND WRN
TX...MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 5-15 PERCENT WHILE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER NRN AND CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/SRN/ERN OK...MIN
RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED SWLY
WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH. THE ERN EDGE OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND U.S HWY 75 IN SERN
OK.
EAST OF THIS LINE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 40F. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL REMAIN MILD /60S/ OVER
CENTRAL/SRN AND ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN
TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A NWLY DIRECTION...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THUS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SERN OK...
EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS. SSWLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-25 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN DEWPTS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S OR HIGHER...MIN RH READINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DIRECTION TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
WINDS...MIN RH READINGS MAY REMAIN IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
OVERNIGHT.
...NRN OK...THE NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...NERN NM/SERN CO...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-25 MPH.
HOWEVER BEING LOCATED DEEPER IN THE COOL AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S...MIN
RH READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...PRECLUDING A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WRN NM...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BELOW
7000 FT. THE PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD
TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
APPARENT.
..CROSBIE.. 01/12/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120839
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL/SRN TX AND
FAR SCENTRAL OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE ERN STATES ON DAY TWO. BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. LOW RH
READINGS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WHERE UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER
LIGHT WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SCENTRAL/SERN OK SWD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH...MIN RH
READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY LATE ON DAY ONE INTO
EARLY DAY TWO. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SPREAD SWD WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 20S AND 30S REACHING THE TX COAST BY LATE MORNING. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...RH READINGS WILL FALL
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF ERN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK.
SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH IN A REGION OF MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FROM SCENTRAL OK
INTO SCENTRAL TX. WEST AND NORTH OF THIS AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
BE WEAKER. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS
WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
...ERN OK SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...
OVER MOST OF ERN OK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER
50S...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO AOB 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION... SUSTAINED NWLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL BE
IN THE 60S WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. EXPECTED
MODERATE RAINS LATE ON DAY ONE WILL PRECLUDE THE AREA FROM BEING
INCLUDED IN A CRITICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
..CROSBIE.. 01/12/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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