Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290707
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NEW MEXICO AND
WRN/SWRN/FAR WRN TEXAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING AREAS OF SRN/ERN
NM...WRN TX...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF PRIMARY INTEREST THIS PERIOD. WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN
EMBEDDED AND VERY STRONG UPPER VORT ACROSS NWRN AZ. THIS FEATURE
WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY 30/00Z. AT THE
SURFACE...A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NM THIS MORNING AND ACROSS MOST OF WRN TX BY
18Z. COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT ARE WLY 700MB WINDS OF 50KT.
EARLY-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOULD FEATURE A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CENTRAL NEB WITH A SWD EXTENDING TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND AREA. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH W-CENTRAL TX AND WRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE VERY DRY AND
WINDY POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NM / FAR WRN TX /
SWRN TX / PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW
RH VALUES
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF NM/FAR WRN TX AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
WRN/SWRN TX NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE FOLLOWING DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CORE OF STRONGEST 500MB WIND /NEAR 80KT/ IS PROGGED BY
LATEST NAM TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SERN NM AT 29/18Z BEFORE ROTATING
ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WRN TX TROUGH 30/00Z. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND WIDESPREAD STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 30-45
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH - PARTICULARLY IN FAVORABLE MTN PASSES -
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY AIRSTREAM AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO LARGE AREA OF
RH VALUES BETWEEN 8-15 PERCENT FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW ELEVATION AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80F. FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AFTER SUNSET
AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND WIND/RH CONDITIONS IMPROVE. PLEASE
REFER TO LOCAL NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1. INCLUDES
SRN/ERN NM...W-CENTRAL TX...TX PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / LOW RH VALUES
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REGION...GUSTY WLY
TO SWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WITH WILDFIRE
CONCERN MOST PRONOUNCED IN LINGERING AREAS OF DEAD WINTER GRASSES
AND FUELS...AND AT RELATIVELY LOW ELEVATION IN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHEST CONTRIBUTING TO LOW RH READINGS.
...SERN STATES...
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST
AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS IN THE WAKE OF STRONG CYCLONE NOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AREAS IF 15-25 MPH WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN GA/SC...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
DIMINISHES IN THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SC/GA AND NRN FL...INCLUDING THE FL PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE RECENT PRECIPITATION WITH
DEPARTING TROUGH...AND LIGHTENING WINDS BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE WEST.
..BANACOS.. 03/29/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290711
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM AND SWRN/FAR WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES EWD TO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN BELT OF MODERATELY
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. CURRENT GFS/NAM FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SEWD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 70-80KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK TRANSLATING THROUGH CENTRAL NM INTO WRN TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NM...SWRN TX...AND FAR WRN
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD
FEATURE WLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY GIVEN CONTINUED DEEP-LAYER WLY
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MTN RANGES IN
SRN NM/FAR WRN TX. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY DEEP SURFACE BASED
MIXED LAYERS /NEAR OR ABOVE 700MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR
RH VALUES IN THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS...OR SIMILAR TO FORECAST RH READINGS FOR DAY 1.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND ALSO IN FAVORABLE MTN PASSES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S.
..BANACOS.. 03/29/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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