Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150831
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   332 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN NV...
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE WRN
   GREAT BASIN...NERN CA...AND THE NRN ROCKIES...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
   ROCKIES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
   LARGE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 37.8N 131.6W AT 15/08Z MOVING TOWARD THE
   CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NRN CA COAST BY
   16/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 500MB JET EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
   THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. 
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN NV...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES / DRY
   FUELS / ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   GUSTY SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL WINDS UP TO 40
   MPH ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
   ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
   MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. NO RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED
   OVER THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS AND
   OBSERVED FIRE DANGER CLASS RATINGS HAVE BEEN IN THE VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME CATEGORY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH
   APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED STORMS WILL TRACK
   GENERALLY NEWD AT 25-30 MPH AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL NV...NERN CA...SRN AND
   ERN ORE...CENTRAL AND WRN ID...AND ERN WA
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   / ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS
   THIS PERIOD /SLY TO SWLY AT 15-25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON/ WILL BRING
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AN ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN ORE AND SWRN ID DURING
   THE EVENING...HOWEVER...TREND WILL BE FOR WETTER STORMS DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL PRECLUDE A SEPARATE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK
   AREA. 
    
   ..BANACOS.. 09/15/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150830
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   NRN HIGH PLAINS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
   TO TRACK FROM NRN NV NEWD TO THE ID/WY BORDER BY 17/00Z AND TO FAR
   ERN MT/WY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 17/12Z. IN ADVANCE
   OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...A LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES
   EXTENDING FROM ERN MT SWD ACROSS ERN CO. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL AND ERN MT...THE WRN
   DAKOTAS...AND WY
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES
   / SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   
   WLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN MT...MUCH OF WY...AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS
   MONDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO APPROACH OF UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEEP
   VERTICAL MIXING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
   LOWER 30S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW RH VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN
   10-20 PERCENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
   AT LOW ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOW 90S
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. NOAA/CPC DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT
   INDICATES A CONTINUATION OF EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN MT...WRN SD...AND MOST OF WY. FAVORABLE
   ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
   10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WINDY/LOW RH CONDITIONS SUGGEST
   THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. 
     
   ..BANACOS.. 09/15/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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