Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 090905
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 091200-101200
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ECENTRAL/SERN UT...MUCH
OF WRN CO/SCENTRAL WY...NCENTRAL/NERN AZ AND FAR NWRN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE NRN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
OPEN UP AND EJECT ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 10/12Z.
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST...ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH VERY LOW
RH VALUES. THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ECENTRAL/SERN UT...MUCH
OF WRN CO/SCENTRAL WY...NCENTRAL/NERN AZ AND FAR NWRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT / LONG TERM
DROUGHT...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN NV NEWD INTO NERN
UT AND CENTRAL WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT SEWD AND
EXTEND FROM FAR NWRN AZ NEWD INTO NCENTRAL CO BY 10/12Z. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DEEP MIXING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OVER FAVORABLY EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH
READINGS WILL ALLOW FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW AND REMAIN SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT SEEING
GOOD RH RECOVERY. EXPECT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS IN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1...FAR SERN
NV...MOST OF AZ AND NM...WRN/CENTRAL CO...SCENTRAL/SERN WY AND
SRN/ERN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT / LONG TERM
DROUGHT...
AS IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND A
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN CRITICALLY LOW RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 15
PERCENT. EXPECT VERY POOR RH RECOVERY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL
AZ NWD INTO NCENTRAL CO WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONGER
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH POOR TO FAIR
RH RECOVERY LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVER THE CRITICAL AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH / MINIMUM
RH READINGS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SWD ALONG THE NRN CA COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT INCREASING
NE/SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN CA ALONG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUPPORTING GOOD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NNELY SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SRN SACRAMENTO/NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY/COASTAL VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE COASTAL AND CENTRAL
SIERRA MTNS RANGES. EXPECT PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM NELY 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL COASTAL RANGE/SIERRA NEVADA. WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER HAVING
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS...STRONG
WINDS/LOW RH AND POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 06/09/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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FNUS22 KWNS 090950
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 101200-111200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EJECT ENEWD ACROSS
THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD BEFORE EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO SWRN KS/SRN
CO THEN WWD INTO SRN NV BY 11/12Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODERATELY STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SCENTRAL WY...CENTRAL AND WRN
CO...FAR NERN AZ AND MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH / MINIMUM
RH READINGS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT / HIGH HAINES INDEX /
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THOSE SEEN DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD...EXPECT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS COUPLED DEEP MIXING
AND A VERY DRY MID TO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL COOL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM READINGS DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...MINIMUM RH READINGS SHOULD STILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
PERCENT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS BY
11/04Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SRN WY AND WRN/CENTRAL CO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
...REMAINDER OF NRN AZ AND SERN UT...
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RH READINGS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IF
LATER FORECASTS INDICATE THAT CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR FOR
A LONGER DURATION THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THAN THIS AREA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN TOMORROW/S DAY ONE OUTLOOK AREA.
...NRN CA AND CENTRAL CA...
AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10/12Z AND 10/15Z. SOME INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY AFTER
11/06Z TO AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS/POOR RH
RECOVERY...DESPITE THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT
DURING THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS AREA WILL BE REASSESSED IN TOMORROW/S
DAY ONE OUTLOOK.
..CROSBIE.. 06/09/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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