Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 080901
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT SAT JUN 08 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 081200-091200
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SRN NV...SRN
AND CENTRAL UT...FAR NWRN CO AND NWRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN AND ERN
GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE GREAT BASIN/PAC NW DURING THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ECENTRAL CA ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND INTO CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 30-40 MPH ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 10
PERCENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...EXPECT BENIGN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND ABOVE CRITICAL RH READINGS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF SRN
NV...SRN/CENTRAL UT...FAR NWRN CO AND NWRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT / MODERATE
TO HIGH HAINES INDEX / LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
A VERY SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY.
MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-15 MPH OVER READINGS
SEEN YESTERDAY AS A SWD MOVING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ENHANCE THERMAL
FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. STEEP LAPSE RATES /NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC/ FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FT AGL WILL AID IN SURFACE
WINDS OBTAINING VALUES NEAR THOSE SEEN IN MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE ALREADY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV BEHIND A COLD FRONT...EXPECT AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
DOWN. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION THE HIGH WIND
THREAT...A MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS TO PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
GROWTH. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER DARK...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH POOR
RH RECOVERY EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1 / INCLUDING
ERN CA...CENTRAL/SRN NV...CENTRAL/SRN UT...SRN WY...MOST OF CO AND
NWRN NM/NRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH / RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT /
INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS HIGH OVER THIS AREA AS IN THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...AS LACK OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY WILL PRECLUDE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL WINDS/STRONGEST
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER CRITICAL
LEVELS BY 09/04Z OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
...NRN AND CENTRAL CA...
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A 10 MB
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FAR NRN CA AND THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WAS PRODUCING 20 TO 30 MPH NLY WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERY
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF NRN CA.
AS MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD...EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH SWD INTO CENTRAL CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SUSTAINED NNELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 MPH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NRN/CENTRAL CA. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT SWD TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL CA ALONG WITH
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL
RANGE/SIERRA NEVADA. MODEST FIRE DANGER RATINGS AND MARGINAL RH
READINGS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 06/08/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081003
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 08 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 091200-101200
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF
SRN/ERN UT AND WRN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR
CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ERN GREAT BASIN REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY EJECT ENEWD INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. ANOTHER DAY OF SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEARS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREATS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN AZ...SRN AND ERN
UT...FAR WRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH BECOMING NWLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE / MINIMUM RH
READINGS FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT / LONG TERM DROUGHT...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES ENEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD AND EXTEND FROM SRN NV
NEWD INTO ECENTRAL UT AND NWRN CO BY 10/12Z. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT
COOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE FROM READINGS DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SWLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY STRONG AND DEEP MIXING WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
A NWLY DIRECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ERRATIC FIRE
BEHAVIOR AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 30-40 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH POOR RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1 INCLUDING SRN
NV...MUCH OF SRN/ERN UT...WRN AND CENTRAL CO...SRN WY...WRN/NRN NM
AND NRN/CENTRAL AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT...
REGION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
SLIGHTLY FROM THE DAY ONE PERIOD...WITH MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF MODERATELY
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND CRITICAL WINDS SPEEDS DEVELOPING
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN
CRITICALLY LOW RH READINGS FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TO UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...BUT POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
...HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM/ERN CO...
NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS/LOW RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THE WEST
OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN NM NWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS
AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE IN THE
TOMORROW/S DAY ONE OUTLOOK.
..CROSBIE.. 06/08/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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