000
ACUS11 KWNS 091542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091542
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-091715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CDT Fri Sep 09 2016

Areas affected...Eastern NE, Western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091542Z - 091715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
areal coverage across eastern NE.  Large hail is possible with
this activity as it spreads/develops into western IA.  A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed along frontal
zone from south central into northeastern NE.  This activity is
evolving within a fairly moist environment characterized by steep
mid-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear.  While
inhibition was noted on 12z soundings across the central Plains,
frontal convergence appears responsible for what are likely near-
surface based thunderstorms.

Latest MRMS data suggest several cells are producing at least
marginally severe hail and hail will likely be the main threat as
convection continues to evolve over eastern NE.  This activity
should spread into western IA during the early afternoon as the
surface front surges southeastward.

..Darrow/Grams.. 09/09/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41139962 41819852 42499564 41809436 40729495 40009850
            41139962