000
FNUS28 KWNS 082051
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2016

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

A mid/upper-level trough will shift eastward to New England and
the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, as another drops southeast
from Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest. Early next week,
ensemble guidance continues to suggest that this trough will
become progressively sheared, with a closed low developing over
the northern Great Basin, and ridging building over northern
portions of the Pacific Northwest. Late next week, stronger zonal
flow aloft may become relegated to portions of Canada and the
northeast CONUS.
 
...D3(SAT)-D4(SUN) -- NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will remain over the region
this weekend, as the aforementioned Pacific Northwest trough
pushes southeast and maintains a relatively tight height gradient.
Gusty westerly surface winds should materialize each day in
response, with the strongest likely on day 4 (Sunday).
Furthermore, dry air will continue to be advected across the
region, favoring minimum RH values around 10-20 percent.
Confidence in breezy/dry conditions has increased enough to
introduce a 40-percent area across southern WY on day 3
(Saturday), and the ongoing one is maintained for day 4 (Sunday). 

...D4(SUN)-D5(MON) -- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT BASIN...
Along the southern/southeastern periphery of the western
trough/closed low, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
support breezy conditions from the higher terrain/slopes of
interior southern CA northeastward to northwestern CO. Dry air
will be maintained across this region, such that minimum RH values
around 5-15 percent appear probable. While some enhancement of
fire-weather concerns is anticipated, forecast winds do not appear
strong enough at this time to support any probabilistic areas. 

...D4(SUN)-D6(TUE) -- PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
With surface ridging building southward across interior portions
of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, areas of gusty
north-northeasterly winds are expected late this weekend into
early next week, including offshore flow along coastal ranges in
western OR and northern CA. Fire-weather concerns should increase
accordingly, but uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness and
forecast wind strength preclude probabilistic areas at this time.
 
..Picca.. 09/08/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$